Author Topic: Multi mio mintage China circulating coin analysis  (Read 81 times)

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Re: Multi mio mintage China circulating coin analysis
« Reply #4 on: May 23, 2019, 11:48:19 PM »
It is sad which the leading Lunar circulating coin second goat has drop below RMB50 recently. As analysis, the is the dawn period for those newly minted circulating coins even with the help of reforming.
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Re: Multi mio mintage China circulating coin analysis
« Reply #3 on: May 02, 2019, 08:07:40 PM »
The 70th anniversary banknotes and the auspicious China culture precious metals coins have been very hot and well coming in China. However, the sad thing is the circulating coin market is stagnant and overall market is a tragic word!

The new and recent years minted and issued circulating coins price appreciation is quite heart-broken. The Lunar pig circulting coin is market selling price stay at face value around 11.6-11 Yuan after the market reform strategy implemented by China for all precious metal coin (legal tender and non legal tender aka medal), note currency (legal tender and test note) and circulating coin. We expect the price will stabilise at 11 Yuan even after the second batch of Lunar pig coins is officially launched in May 2019.

The Lunar series circulating coins did not improve even the most pricy and leading coin "2nd goat" shows a slight decline. "1st sheep" and "1st space" and etc also shows little fluctuations. It is very difficult to restore the glory of the past in the short term.

As the old & rare circulating coins are more resistant to price declination and basically no big fluctuations.


In fact, all coins can be price appreciating BUT the only difference is the degree level of the price appreciation. How to collect coins to ensure more price appreciation in current soft market.


In fact, the appreciation of coins mainly depends on the following four factors:


1. Planned mintage and surviving mintage : Rule of thumb things are highly price if it is rare! Thus the lower mintage items are more rare and will be more price appreciation in the late stage (after the softmarket over) and are more popular in the market! Although it is not absolute and guarantee BUT more than 90% of the coins are in line with this rule of thumb.

2. Theme of the coins with a wide audience and high attention are more popular and in demand. For example, "1st goat" is the leading varieties of Lunar series with strong price falling resistant.

3, Design and Minting technology process: Design and art crafting will increase the value of the coins but collectors must also pay attention quality of the coins.

4, In a roll, complete and continue of series: For circulating coins, roll and by volume are more acceptable and valuable to the market than loose currency. The lunar series coins is more valuable in set for collection.

Therefore, the circulating coins which match the above four factors will not be too bad in term of market value and the resilience will be relatively better.

The biggest problem with circulating coins is that it is difficult to circulate in market as common payment mode. The circulating coin has collections and commemorative attributes and the coin design is quite distinctive. In addition, the knowledge of circulating coins is not popular among public which makes it difficult for circulating coins to circulate in the market. Many people just treat t as hyping tool for profit.

China respective departments have reformed for collection coins and notes since last year and achieved market results. From the perspective of the current circulating coin market which the reform of circulation commemorative coins is imperative! Since it is impossible to have both circulation and commemoration. What choice to make? Will there be any new changes in the upcoming 泰山 commemoration circulation coin?
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Re: Multi mio mintage China circulating coin analysis
« Reply #2 on: May 02, 2019, 02:45:40 AM »
This is an extraction from China Forum which analysis the Multi mio mintage China circulating coins market of the last few years.

I will translate into english for your reading soon. In fact this apply to fiat and non fiat coins too. I will also provide you some typical examples for you to understand and analysis. This can help you to prevent cheating by those fake news creators and hypers.
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Multi mio mintage China circulating coin analysis
« Reply #1 on: May 02, 2019, 02:41:44 AM »
纪念币持续下跌!流通还是纪念?!改革迫在眉睫!
集币在线 19-04-29 10:13:53 中国集币在线

这段时间,70周年钞和吉祥文化的市场行情那叫一个风生水起!但令人心酸的是,纪念币市场还是一潭死水,整体行情怎一个惨字了得!


新币、次新币行情涨幅相当令人心酸,二猪基本在面值徘徊,改革币市场价在11.6-11.7元左右,等5月份二批改革币正式面世之后,预计改革币的市场行情还会出现下跌,最终大约会稳定在11元左右。


系列龙头币也依旧毫无起色,二羊甚至出现了小幅下跌,一羊、和一、航天币等也基本没有出现太大的波动,短期内很难回复往日的辉煌。


老精稀品种比较抗跌,基本没有太大的涨跌波动。




但其实所有的纪念币,都可以升值,区别只是在于升值空间的大小。那么,在纪念币行情低迷的情况下,怎样收藏才能保证升值更多呢?


其实,纪念币升值主要看以下4点:


1、发行量或存世量:物以稀为贵!基本上发行量越小的纪念币,后期升值越猛,也越受市场欢迎!虽然并不绝对,但总体来说,基本90%以上的纪念币符合这一规律。


2、题材:题材受众面广、关注度高的纪念币更受欢迎。比如和一、一羊、二羊等,这些都是受热钱关注的题材。而且此类纪念币又是系列题材的龙头品种,抗跌性相对较强。


3、设计及制作工艺:设计和工艺会提高纪念币价值,但纪念币收藏要讲究品相,品相不佳的纪念币要谨慎入手。


4、成卷,成套收藏:对纪念币来说,按卷收集比散币更容易被市场接受。例如生肖等每年都发行的纪念币,成套收集价格会更高,品相也相对来说更有保障。


所以,一般符合以上4点的流通纪念币,市场行情不会太差,抗跌性也会相对好一些。


当然了,目前纪念币最大的问题还是流通难!纪念币本身具有收藏、纪念属性,币面设计又颇具特色,再加上纪念币的知识普及程度不够,这就导致纪念币很难在市场中流通起来,不少人只是把它当做一种盈利、炒作的工具。


从去年开始,金银币就已经在着手改革了,市场效果也有了明显改善;而从当下的流通纪念币市场来看,流通纪念币改革势在必行!既然现在流通和纪念无法兼得,是否需要作出取舍?接下来即将发行的泰山币是否会有新的改变?
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