Author Topic: Silver proof 27 g panda 1983 -1985 discussion  (Read 106 times)

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Silver proof 27 g panda 1983 -1985 discussion
« Reply #1 on: March 11, 2019, 07:21:09 PM »
1983 Silver proof panda 27g is the first year proof panda for the series. 1984 & 1985 are in same weight and purity. All the 1983-1985 are the key date and big 3 of the China silver panda series with mintage of 10,000. It fetch the highest price for the series. It also apply 180% rotation for the reverse side of the coin with "temple of heaven".

As at now, there are the total quantity graded by NGC are as following:-

1983   1,236 pc   
1984   1,518 pc
1985   1,309 pc

In average, the grading result is 60% below PF69 and 40% PF69 and above.

The panda coins are minted mainly for earning foreign currency for China. Therefore, majority of the panda coins are sold overseas rather than local. It sell at low premium at the issue time. However, as when the collectors (demand) become more and more over years which the price spike and Chinese in China start buying back their coin from overseas after china become richer after decades (10 year - 1 decade) of the economic open policy. The 1983 silver panda coin price has raised from less than 100 to 5000 USD during the peak for one pc of NGC PF69.   

However, every economic has cycle which will up and down. Currently, the 1983 silver panda coin NGC PF69 price fetch around 2,300 in china and lowest 2,900 in ebay. Ebay is 20% higher than china due to ebay fee, shipping fee, insurance and so on.

https://www.ebay.com/itm/1983-27-Gram-Silver-China-Panda-NGC-PF69-Ultra-Cameo-10-Yuan-Chinese-Coin/292971699157?hash=item4436795bd5:g:1gMAAOSwrfRcOmpa

The price drop from 5K peak and 2.9K at current softmarket which is almost 40% drop. It that a good time for you to buy in during this softmarket? or will it go further down? I make some analysis and monitoring of the NGC census as below:-

As at now, there are the PF70 graded by NGC are as following:-

1983     3 pc   
1984     4 pc
1985    12pc


As at now, there are the PF69 graded by NGC are as following:-

1983    365 pc   
1984    595 pc
1985    513 pc

Let make assumption which the panda silver coins sold by distributors in USA, German and Japan for China government. It must be tough for the start BUT pick up at later years which make the price increase gradually. The panda series has become well known after their sales efforts especially Mr Martin Weiss ex-owner and founder of Panda America USA. The collectors bases has increasing drastically and globally which is consistent of the increasing mintage of panda coin over years.

We assume the following:-

=>some buyers buy at early years has stop collecting and their family does not know the value of it or they have sold it at very early stage to others.
=>some buyers do not well kept the coin which lead to lower grade of 69 and below as show in NGC census.
=>some hoarder yet to release their stock and forgot it totally. 
=>some buyers has loss track of their purchase since it been more than 30 years
=>Collectors still collect and not willing to resale it 

All above make the quantity circulating in market is much more lesser than the mintage of 10,000 each. Thus, then price went up.

However, as when dealers need money which they will release their last drop of blood in their stock. However, I deduce not many vendor has good grade leftover in their stock. I do not see much from Panda american Nam Chong & hangzhouhuayinshoucangpin of ebay sellers over the last 2 years. Hangzou Xu Hong has listed the same items for last 3 years and unsold due to the detached market price listed by him which is much higher than other sellers.

I also notice the NGC PF70 has not existed for the past BUT no. has up significantly and also the no. of PF69. This means some have regrade their coins or/and more people send for grading during softmarket. This let me deduce which dealer with deep pocket has started depressing for money during the softmarket. This is consistent with the increasing grading quantity of the coins in NGC and price go lower in ebay and china auction houses. The sold number transactions has up in china too.

Overall, the price has drop significantly of 40% compare to peak. Personally I will buy it if I do not have the coin for my set. However, I will buy second set if the price down for another 10%-20%.

Take note the above is my personal view ONLY. You need to make decision by doing your homework instead of base on my analysis.

Take note the panda lover with money might pay sky rocket high price for the PF70. I am not chasing the PF70 because I am not rich enough to do it. However I might if financially allow me to do so. 
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